MeritValue

Spotify Technology S.A.

SPOTdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Spotify Technology S.A. earns about 1% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between €387.33 and €687.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€9.67B1€11.7B2€13.2B3€15.7B3€17.2B3
Net income−€34M4−€430M5−€532M6€1.14B6€2.21B6
Operating cash flow€361M7€46M8€680M9€2.3B9€2.93B9
Capital expenditure€85M10€25M11€6M12€17M12€61M12
Free cash flow (derived)€276M7€21M8€674M9€2.28B9€2.87B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents€2.74B13€2.48B14€3.11B14€4.78B14€5.26B14
Diluted shares192.2M193.3M197.1M203.8M205.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€404.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€107.47
Free cash flow it threw off
€139.53
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on €404.65 of net worth that earned you €107.47 and generated €139.53 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
1% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 -18%FY23 -21%FY24 21%FY25 27%

It earned about 1% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between €387.33 and €687.35 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
€687.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase€2.28B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
€387.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase€2.28B
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
€97.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth €387.33
The three cases
Bear0.0%€184.09
Base20.0%€387.33
Bull20.0%€387.33

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001639920-24-000004 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001639920-25-000003 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006874 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001639920-24-000004 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001639920-25-000003 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006874 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001639920-24-000004 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001639920-25-000003 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006874 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001639920-24-000004 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001639920-25-000003 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006874 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001639920-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006874 (CashAndCashEquivalents)