MeritValue

Stabilis Solutions, Inc.

SLNGdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Stabilis Solutions, Inc. earns about -0% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$69.2M1$98.8M2$73.1M3$73.3M4$68.2M4
Net income−$7.8M5−$3.19M6$125,0007$4.6M8−$1.35M8
Operating cash flow$4.3M9$14.7M10$6.71M11$13.7M12$8.6M12
Capital expenditure$7.63M13$3.93M14$10.3M15$9.15M16$8.14M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$3.33M9$10.8M10−$3.54M11$4.55M12$462,00012
Total debt$21.7M17$23.9M18$18.9M19$17.7M20$15.6M20
Cash & equivalents$910,00021$11.5M22$5.37M23$8.99M24$7.46M24
Diluted shares17.5M18.3M18.5M18.6M18.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$35.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.73
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.25
Debt you’d be carrying
$8.38

10 shares is a claim on $35.85 of net worth that earned you −$0.73 and generated $0.25 of cash last year, against $8.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-0% avg · 5y
FY21 -6%FY22 -0%FY23 1%FY24 6%FY25 -1%

It earned an average -0% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 28% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$462,000
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$462,000
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007304 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006870 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005086 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007090 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007304 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006870 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005086 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007090 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007304 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006870 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005086 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007090 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007304 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006870 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005086 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007090 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007304 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006870 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005086 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007090 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-007304 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006870 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005086 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007090 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)