MeritValue

NATIONAL STEEL CO

SIDdata completeness 75%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

NATIONAL STEEL CO earns about 55% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 3 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2007FY 2008FY 2009
Revenue———
Net income$1.7B1$2.65B1$1.28B1
Operating cash flow$1.26B2$2.07B2$40M2
Capital expenditure$632M3$886M3$930M3
Free cash flow (derived)$632M2$1.18B2−$890M2
Total debt———
Cash & equivalents$1.21B4$3.54B4$3.98B4
Diluted shares1539.49B1534.07B1492.45B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.01
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.01
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $0.03 of net worth that earned you $0.01 and generated −$0.01 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
55% avg · 3y
FY07 —FY08 80%FY09 30%

It earned about 55% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 3y

Share count is down 3% over 3 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$632M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$632M
Earnings Power Value
$0.01
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.7B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.01
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.01
Base5.0%$0.01
Bull10.0%$0.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2007-12-31 · accession 0001292814-10-001853 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2007-12-31 · accession 0001292814-10-001853 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2007-12-31 · accession 0001292814-10-001853 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2007-12-31 · accession 0001292814-10-001853 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)