MeritValue

Shell plc

SHELdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Shell plc earns about 10% on invested capital, and has bought back 27% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $35.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$261.5B1$381.3B1$316.6B2$284.3B2$266.9B2
Net income$20.1B3$42.3B3$19.4B4$16.1B4$17.8B4
Operating cash flow$45.1B5$68.4B5$54.2B6$54.7B6$42.9B6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$89.1B7$83.8B8$81.5B8$77.1B9$75.6B9
Cash & equivalents$37B10$40.2B11$38.8B11$39.1B11$30.2B11
Diluted shares7.76B6.97B6.49B6.08B5.69B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$306.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$31.35
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$132.94

10 shares is a claim on $306.49 of net worth that earned you $31.35 last year, against $132.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 18%FY23 9%FY24 8%FY25 8%

It earned an average 10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−27% shares · 5y

Share count is down 27% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 15% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$35.26
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$19.4B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001306965-25-000025 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017024 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001306965-25-000025 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017024 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001306965-25-000025 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017024 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001306965-23-000007 (Borrowings)
  8. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001306965-25-000025 (Borrowings)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017024 (Borrowings)
  10. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001306965-25-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017024 (CashAndCashEquivalents)