MeritValue

SES AI Corp

SESdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

SES AI Corp earns about -28% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 442% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue———$2.04M1$21M1
Net income−$31.3M2−$51M2−$53.4M3−$100.2M4−$73M4
Operating cash flow−$30M5−$46.5M5−$56.4M6−$66.1M7−$58.4M7
Capital expenditure$8.95M8$14.7M8$15.8M9$12.2M10$2.86M10
Free cash flow (derived)−$38.9M5−$61.2M5−$72.2M6−$78.3M7−$61.2M7
Total debt————$830,00011
Cash & equivalents$160.5M12$106.6M13$85.7M14$128.8M15$29.5M15
Diluted shares61.1M288.3M315.1M321.8M330.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.21
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.85
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.03

10 shares is a claim on $6.49 of net worth that earned you −$2.21 and generated −$1.85 of cash last year, against $0.03 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-28% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -14%FY23 -16%FY24 -53%FY25 -31%

It earned an average -28% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+442% shares · 5y

Share count is up 442% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001819142-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819142-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819142-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001819142-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819142-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819142-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001819142-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819142-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819142-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001819142-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001819142-26-000010 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819142-23-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819142-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819142-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001819142-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)