MeritValue

Serve Robotics Inc. /DE/

SERVdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Serve Robotics Inc. /DE/ earns about -20% on equity, but has diluted owners by 1146% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$107,8191$207,5452$1.81M3$2.65M3
Net income−$54,6274−$21.9M5−$24.8M6−$39.2M7−$101.4M7
Operating cash flow−$51,6278−$21.4M9−$16M10−$21.5M11−$80.2M11
Capital expenditure—$3.64M12$4,91413$10.3M14$37.3M14
Free cash flow (derived)—−$25M9−$16M10−$31.8M11−$117.6M11
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$7.97M15$2.72M16$6,75617$123.3M18$106.2M18
Diluted shares5.0M6.9M14.2M36.7M62.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$56.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$16.27
Free cash flow it threw off
−$18.88
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $56.31 of net worth that earned you −$16.27 and generated −$18.88 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-20% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 -30%FY25 -29%

It earned an average -20% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1146% shares · 5y

Share count is up 1146% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-018566 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001832483-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001832483-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-025527 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-018566 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001832483-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001832483-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-025527 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-018566 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001832483-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001832483-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-018566 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001832483-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001832483-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-018566 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-018566 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001832483-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001832483-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)