MeritValue

Sinclair, Inc.

SBGIdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Sinclair, Inc. earns about -1% on invested capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.13B1$3.93B2$3.13B3$3.55B3$3.17B3
Net income−$414M4$2.65B5−$291M6$310M6−$112M6
Operating cash flow$327M7$799M8$235M9$98M9$189M9
Capital expenditure$80M10$105M11$92M12$84M12$74M12
Free cash flow (derived)$247M7$694M8$143M9$14M9$115M9
Total debt—$73M13$4.22B14$4.16B15$4.4B15
Cash & equivalents$819M16$884M17$662M18$697M19$866M19
Diluted shares75.0M70.7M65.1M66.1M69.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$64.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$16.2
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.64
Debt you’d be carrying
$636.16

10 shares is a claim on $64.09 of net worth that earned you −$16.2 and generated $16.64 of cash last year, against $636.16 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -7%FY24 8%FY25 -3%

It earned an average -1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 5923% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$115M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$115M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001971213-24-000011 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001971213-25-000012 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001971213-26-000012 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001971213-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001971213-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001971213-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001971213-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001971213-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001971213-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001971213-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001971213-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001971213-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001971213-24-000011 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001971213-25-000012 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001971213-26-000012 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001971213-25-000012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001971213-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001971213-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001971213-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)