MeritValue

StandardAero, Inc.

SAROdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

StandardAero, Inc. earns about 7% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 21% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.15B1$4.56B2$5.24B2$6.06B2
Net income−$21M3−$35.1M4$11M4$277.4M4
Operating cash flow$27.3M5$67.9M6$76.3M6$316.7M6
Capital expenditure$41.2M7$55.1M8$102.9M8$82.4M8
Free cash flow (derived)−$14M5$12.8M6−$26.6M6$234.3M6
Total debt—$3.2B9$2.23B10$2.21B10
Cash & equivalents$120.1M11$58M11$102.6M11$289.7M11
Diluted shares275.2M275.2M289.8M334.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$79.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.3
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.01
Debt you’d be carrying
$66.24

10 shares is a claim on $79.78 of net worth that earned you $8.3 and generated $7.01 of cash last year, against $66.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 4y
FY22 12%FY23 4%FY24 4%FY25 9%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+21% shares · 4y

Share count is up 21% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 31% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$12.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$12.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$12.21
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037939 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072618 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037939 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072618 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037939 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072618 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037939 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072618 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037939 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072618 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072618 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)