MeritValue

RED ROBIN GOURMET BURGERS INC

RRGBdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

RED ROBIN GOURMET BURGERS INC earns about -11% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.16B1$1.27B2$1.3B3$1.25B3$1.21B3
Net income−$50.4M4−$78.9M5−$21.2M6−$77.5M6−$23.3M6
Operating cash flow$47.3M7$35.5M8−$1.16M9$7.05M9$37M9
Capital expenditure$42.3M10$38.2M11$49.4M12$26M12$30.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.03M7−$2.63M8−$50.6M9−$19M9$6.22M9
Total debt$353.9M13$423.9M14$371.7M15$371.1M16$335M16
Cash & equivalents$22.8M17$48.8M18$23.6M19$30.7M20$19.9M20
Diluted shares15.7M15.8M15.8M15.7M17.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$59.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$13.09
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.5
Debt you’d be carrying
$188.3

10 shares is a claim on −$59.78 of net worth that earned you −$13.09 and generated $3.5 of cash last year, against $188.3 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-11% avg · 5y
FY21 -7%FY22 -12%FY23 -5%FY24 -24%FY25 -9%

It earned an average -11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001171759-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001171759-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011733 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001171759-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001171759-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011733 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001171759-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001171759-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011733 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001171759-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001171759-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011733 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001171759-23-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001171759-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171759-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-26-011733 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001171759-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001171759-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171759-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-26-011733 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)