MeritValue

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.

REFIdata completeness 75%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 21% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $17.66 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$48.9M1———
Net income$32.3M2$38.7M3$37M4$36M4
Operating cash flow$17M5$28.4M6$23.2M7$28.8M7
Capital expenditure————
Free cash flow (derived)————
Total debt$617.9M8$284.5M9$49.1M10$49.3M11
Cash & equivalents$5.72M12$7.9M13$26.4M14$14.9M14
Diluted shares17.7M18.3M19.7M21.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$143.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.8
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$23.02

10 shares is a claim on $143.63 of net worth that earned you $16.8 last year, against $23.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 4y
FY22 4%FY23 8%FY24 13%FY25 13%

It earned an average 9% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+21% shares · 4y

Share count is up 21% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 92% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$17.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$36.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$23.3
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-018678 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029644 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037616 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029644 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037616 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-018678 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029644 (DebtCurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037616 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103027 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-029644 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037616 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-103027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)