MeritValue

RideNow Group, Inc.

RDNWdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

RideNow Group, Inc. earns about -10% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 449% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$924.2M1$1.46B2$1.37B3$1.21B4$1.08B4
Net income−$9.73M5−$261.5M6−$215.5M7−$78.6M8−$52.4M8
Operating cash flow−$32.2M9−$18.9M9−$38.9M10$99.4M11$15.9M11
Capital expenditure$5.65M12$5.6M13$13.7M14$2M15$5.6M15
Free cash flow (derived)−$37.8M9−$24.5M9−$52.6M10$97.4M11$10.3M11
Total debt$257.9M16$1.2B17$548.6M18$502.2M19$415.2M19
Cash & equivalents$49M20$46.8M21$58.9M22$85.3M23$29.5M23
Diluted shares6.9M15.9M17.7M35.4M38.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$3.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$13.8
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.71
Debt you’d be carrying
$109.38

10 shares is a claim on −$3.29 of net worth that earned you −$13.8 and generated $2.71 of cash last year, against $109.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-10% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 -15%FY23 -10%FY24 -14%FY25 -11%

It earned an average -10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+449% shares · 5y

Share count is up 449% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 61% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$10.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$10.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001596961-23-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001596961-24-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001596961-25-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001596961-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001596961-23-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001596961-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001596961-25-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001596961-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001596961-23-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001596961-25-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001596961-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001596961-23-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001596961-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001596961-25-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001596961-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001596961-22-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001596961-24-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001596961-25-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001596961-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001596961-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001596961-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001596961-25-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001596961-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)