MeritValue

Red Cat Holdings, Inc.

RCATdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Red Cat Holdings, Inc. earns about -80% on equity, but has diluted owners by 236% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5M1$6.43M2$1.31M3$17.8M4$40.7M4
Net income−$13.2M5−$11.7M6−$28.1M7−$24.1M8−$72.1M8
Operating cash flow−$1.4M9−$16M10−$29.2M10−$17.7M11−$89.1M11
Capital expenditure—$363,68912$2.45M13$259,00014$6.65M14
Free cash flow (derived)—−$16.4M10−$31.6M10−$18M11−$95.8M11
Total debt$269,04515$1.93M16$1.32M17$751,57018$350,00019
Cash & equivalents$277,34720$4.08M20$3.17M21$6.07M21—
Diluted shares29.4M53.7M54.6M60.1M99.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$24.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.28
Free cash flow it threw off
−$9.68
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.04

10 shares is a claim on $24.84 of net worth that earned you −$7.28 and generated −$9.68 of cash last year, against $0.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-80% avg · 5y
FY21 -251%FY22 -15%FY23 -51%FY24 -55%FY25 -29%

It earned an average -80% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+236% shares · 5y

Share count is up 236% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 30% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-04-30 · accession 0001554795-22-000302 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001554795-23-000231 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001554795-24-000195 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001628280-26-019861 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-04-30 · accession 0001554795-22-000302 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001554795-23-000231 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001554795-24-000195 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001628280-26-019861 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-04-30 · accession 0001554795-22-000302 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001554795-23-000231 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001628280-26-019861 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001554795-23-000231 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001554795-24-000195 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001628280-26-019861 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-04-30 · accession 0001554795-22-000302 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001554795-23-000231 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001554795-24-000195 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001554795-24-000195 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019861 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-04-30 · accession 0001554795-23-000231 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0001554795-24-000195 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)