MeritValue

Roblox Corp

RBLXdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Roblox Corp earns about -53% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 36% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.78 and $37.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.92B1$2.23B2$2.8B3$3.6B3$4.89B3
Net income−$491.7M4−$924.4M5−$1.15B6−$935.4M6−$1.07B6
Operating cash flow$659.1M7$369.3M8$458.2M9$822.3M9$1.8B9
Capital expenditure$93.3M10$426.2M11$320.7M12$179.6M12$441M12
Free cash flow (derived)$565.8M7−$56.9M8$137.5M9$642.7M9$1.36B9
Total debt$2.32B13$2.28B14$2.26B15$2.22B16$2.18B16
Cash & equivalents$3B17$2.98B18$678.5M19$711.7M20$1.21B20
Diluted shares505.9M595.6M616.4M647.5M689.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$5.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$15.44
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.65
Debt you’d be carrying
$31.64

10 shares is a claim on $5.72 of net worth that earned you −$15.44 and generated $19.65 of cash last year, against $31.64 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-53% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -53%FY24 -43%FY25 -62%

It earned about -53% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+36% shares · 5y

Share count is up 36% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.78 and $37.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$37.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.2%
  • fcfBase$642.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$23.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.2%
  • fcfBase$642.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $23.78
The three cases
Bear0.0%$11.9
Base15.2%$23.78
Bull20.0%$28.97

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001315098-24-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001315098-25-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001315098-26-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001315098-24-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001315098-25-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001315098-26-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001315098-24-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001315098-25-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001315098-26-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001315098-24-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001315098-25-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001315098-26-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001315098-23-000035 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001315098-24-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001315098-25-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001315098-26-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001315098-23-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001315098-24-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001315098-25-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001315098-26-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)