MeritValue

RAND CAPITAL CORP

RANDdata completeness 63%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

RAND CAPITAL CORP earns about 7% on equity, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $22.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$15.8M1−$881,8492$6.53M3$8.83M3−$8.04M3
Operating cash flow−$3.94M4$252,3685−$8.34M6$15.3M6$11.3M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$833,8757$1.37M8$3.3M8$834,8059$4.21M9
Diluted shares2.6M2.6M2.6M2.6M2.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$177.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$27.3
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $177.17 of net worth that earned you −$27.3 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
7% avg · 5y
FY21 26%FY22 -2%FY23 11%FY24 14%FY25 -15%

It earned an average 7% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$22.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.53M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025396 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035949 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-133767 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-025396 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035949 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-133767 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035949 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-133767 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-133767 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)