MeritValue

PRUDENTIAL PLC

PUKdata completeness 75%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'operatingCashFlow'

The thesis, from the filings

PRUDENTIAL PLC earns about 15% on invested capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $6.92 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$23B1$8.99B2$9.74B3$10.7B3$11.5B3
Net income−$2.04B4−$1.01B5$1.7B6$2.29B6$3.98B6
Operating cash flow—————
Capital expenditure$36M7$34M8$44M9$101M9$104M9
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$6.13B10————
Cash & equivalents$7.17B11$5.51B12$4.75B12$5.77B12$7.71B12
Diluted shares2.75B2.75B2.75B2.66B2.55B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$78.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.61
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $78.95 of net worth that earned you $15.61 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 -4%FY23 13%FY24 21%FY25 33%

It earned an average 15% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$6.92
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.7B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.51
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-038849 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-027998 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021178 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-038849 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-027998 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021178 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-038849 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-027998 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021178 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-034825 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-027998 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021178 (CashAndCashEquivalents)