MeritValue

Palmer Square Capital BDC Inc.

PSBDdata completeness 63%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Palmer Square Capital BDC Inc. earns about 3% on equity, but has diluted owners by 107% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $6.15 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$19.1M1−$74.5M2$107.8M3$47.7M3−$3.17M3
Operating cash flow−$438M4$25.1M5$19.5M6−$200.6M6$160.7M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.09M7$1.65M8$2.12M9$2.77M10$3.22M10
Diluted shares15.5M23.1M25.7M32.4M32.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$144.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.99
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $144.43 of net worth that earned you −$0.99 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
3% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 -20%FY23 23%FY24 9%FY25 -1%

It earned an average 3% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+107% shares · 5y

Share count is up 107% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$6.15
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$19.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$23.23
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-017740 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028337 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073362 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-017740 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028337 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073362 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019265 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-017740 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028337 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073362 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)