MeritValue

PERRIGO Co plc

PRGOdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PERRIGO Co plc earns about -4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.72 and $11.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.14B1$4.45B2$4.66B3$4.37B3$4.25B3
Net income−$68.9M4−$140.6M5−$12.7M6−$171.8M6−$1.43B6
Operating cash flow$156.3M7$307.3M8$405.5M9$362.9M9$238.5M9
Capital expenditure$152.1M10$96.4M11$101.7M12$118.3M12$93.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$4.2M7$210.9M8$303.8M9$244.6M9$145.1M9
Total debt$4.12B13$4.14B14$4.51B15$3.65B16$3.68B16
Cash & equivalents$1.86B17$600.7M17$751.3M18$558.8M18$531.6M18
Diluted shares133.6M134.5M135.3M137.4M138.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$211.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$102.92
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.48
Debt you’d be carrying
$265.47

10 shares is a claim on $211.95 of net worth that earned you −$102.92 and generated $10.48 of cash last year, against $265.47 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 -3%FY23 -2%FY24 -1%FY25 -17%

It earned about -4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 11% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.72 and $11.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.1%
  • fcfBase$244.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$8.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.1%
  • fcfBase$244.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $8.72
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.52
Base5.1%$8.72
Bull10.1%$16.04

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001585364-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001585364-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001585364-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001585364-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001585364-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001585364-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001585364-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001585364-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001585364-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001585364-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001585364-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001585364-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001585364-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001585364-24-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001585364-25-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001585364-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001585364-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001585364-26-000009 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)