MeritValue

Porch Group, Inc.

PRCHdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Porch Group, Inc. earns about -7% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$192.4M1$275.9M2$287.5M3$313.3M3$418.9M3
Net income−$106.6M4−$156.6M5−$133.9M6−$32.8M6−$3.36M6
Operating cash flow−$34.8M7−$17.7M8$33.9M9−$31.7M9$66.4M9
Capital expenditure$972,00010$2.35M11$851,00012$523,00012$454,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$35.7M7−$20.1M8$33.1M9−$32.2M9$66M9
Total debt$829.5M13$883.5M14$871.5M15$807.9M16$785.7M16
Cash & equivalents$315.7M17$215.1M18$258.4M19$167.6M20$44.7M20
Diluted shares93.9M97.4M96.1M99.6M103.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$2.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.32
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.36
Debt you’d be carrying
$75.77

10 shares is a claim on −$2.37 of net worth that earned you −$0.32 and generated $6.36 of cash last year, against $75.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-7% avg · 5y
FY21 -12%FY22 -16%FY23 -14%FY24 2%FY25 6%

It earned an average -7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$33.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$33.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001784535-24-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001784535-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001784535-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001784535-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001784535-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001784535-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001784535-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001784535-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001784535-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001784535-24-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001784535-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001784535-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001784535-24-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001784535-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001784535-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001784535-24-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001784535-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001784535-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)