MeritValue

Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

PHATdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earns about -199% on equity, but has diluted owners by 97% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$01$682,0002$55.3M3$175.1M3
Net income−$143.9M4−$197.7M5−$201.6M6−$334.3M7−$221.2M7
Operating cash flow−$148.5M8−$146.5M9−$137.6M10−$266.8M11−$166.8M11
Capital expenditure$328,00012$1.04M13$1.63M14$135,00015$229,00015
Free cash flow (derived)−$148.8M8−$147.6M9−$139.2M10−$266.9M11−$167M11
Total debt$179.3M16$190.5M17$275.7M18$402.8M19$418.2M19
Cash & equivalents$183.3M20$155.4M21$381.4M22$297.3M23$130M23
Diluted shares37.0M39.1M51.3M63.2M72.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$60.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$30.34
Free cash flow it threw off
−$22.9
Debt you’d be carrying
$57.35

10 shares is a claim on −$60.09 of net worth that earned you −$30.34 and generated −$22.9 of cash last year, against $57.35 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-199% avg · 5y
FY21 -199%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -199% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+97% shares · 5y

Share count is up 97% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 133% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-073629 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034183 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073379 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004875 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-073629 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034183 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073379 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004875 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-073629 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034183 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073379 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004875 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-073629 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034183 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073379 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004875 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-073629 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034183 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073379 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004875 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-073629 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034183 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073379 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)