MeritValue

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust

PEBdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust earns about -0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $24.17 and $57.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$733M1$1.39B2$1.42B3$1.45B3$1.48B3
Net income−$184.9M4−$87.2M5−$78M6−$4.24M6−$65.8M6
Operating cash flow$70.8M7$278.7M8$236.2M9$275M9$249.7M9
Capital expenditure——$200.6M10$128.8M10$97.4M10
Free cash flow (derived)——$35.6M9$146.3M9$152.3M9
Total debt$2.44B11$2.39B12$2.32B13$2.25B14$2.12B14
Cash & equivalents$58.5M15$41M16$183.7M17$206.7M18$184.2M18
Diluted shares130.8M130.5M121.8M119.8M117.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$210.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.62
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.02
Debt you’d be carrying
$181.5

10 shares is a claim on $210.94 of net worth that earned you −$5.62 and generated $13.02 of cash last year, against $181.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-0% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 0%FY23 1%FY24 -0%FY25 -1%

It earned about -0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $24.17 and $57.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$57.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$146.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$24.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$146.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $24.17
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.28
Base20.0%$24.17
Bull20.0%$24.17

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001474098-24-000040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001474098-25-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001474098-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001474098-24-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001474098-25-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001474098-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001474098-24-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001474098-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001474098-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001474098-26-000015 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001474098-23-000038 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001474098-24-000040 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001474098-25-000039 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001474098-26-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001474098-23-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001474098-24-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001474098-25-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001474098-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)