Patria Investments Ltd
PAXdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Patria Investments Ltd earns about 44% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 31% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.28 and $55.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $115M1 | $235.5M2 | $258.9M3 | $327.6M3 | $374.2M3 |
| Net income | $62.2M4 | $122.5M5 | $93M6 | $118.4M6 | $71.9M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $52.7M7 | $107.6M8 | $81.1M9 | $156.7M9 | $145.9M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $163,00010 | $1.55M11 | $5.44M12 | $5.87M12 | $3.61M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $52.5M7 | $106M8 | $75.6M9 | $150.9M9 | $142.3M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $14.1M13 | $15.3M14 | $26.5M14 | $16.1M14 | $33.4M14 |
| Diluted shares | 117.0M | 136.0M | 147.2M | 148.2M | 153.3M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $31.38 of net worth that earned you $4.69 and generated $9.29 of cash last year.
It earned about 44% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 31% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.28 and $55.6 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$142.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$142.3M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$93M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $13.48 |
| Base | 20.0% | $30.49 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $30.49 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-014243 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-042839 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-025640 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-014243 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-042839 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-025640 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-014243 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-042839 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-025640 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-014243 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-042839 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-025640 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-042839 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-025640 (CashAndCashEquivalents)