MeritValue

Oxford Square Capital Corp.

OXSQdata completeness 63%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Oxford Square Capital Corp. earns about -9% on equity, but has diluted owners by 54% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.8 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$39.6M1−$85.6M2$17.2M3$5.88M3−$18.7M3
Operating cash flow−$107.4M4$20.4M5$65.5M6$25.7M6−$13.7M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt——$128.9M7——
Cash & equivalents$9.02M8$9.02M9$5.74M10$34.9M10$51.9M10
Diluted shares49.6M49.8M53.9M63.5M76.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$19.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.45
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $19.02 of net worth that earned you −$2.45 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-9% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 -62%FY23 11%FY24 4%FY25 -13%

It earned an average -9% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+54% shares · 5y

Share count is up 54% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$0.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.88M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-023660 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-020801 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-024280 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-023660 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-020801 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-024280 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-023660 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-023660 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-020801 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-024280 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)