Outlook Therapeutics, Inc.

OTLKdata completeness 75%11 fiscal years on file

The thesis, from the filings

Outlook Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -955% on equity, and has bought back 77% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	—	—	—	$1.41M¹
Net income	−$53.2M²	−$66.1M³	−$59M⁴	−$75.4M⁵	−$62.4M⁵
Operating cash flow	−$54.3M⁶	−$56.7M⁷	−$43M⁸	−$68.8M⁹	−$51.8M⁹
Capital expenditure	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	—	—	—	—	—
Total debt	—	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$14.5M¹⁰	$17.4M¹¹	$23.4M¹²	$14.9M¹³	$8.08M¹³
Diluted shares	152.7M	212.1M	12.5M	18.5M	34.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

−$9.25

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$17.94

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on −$9.25 of net worth that earned you −$17.94 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-955% avg · 5y

FY21 -1154%FY22 -756%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -955% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

−77% shares · 5y

Share count is down 77% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001104659-25-123264 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-22-019036 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-020000 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-016491 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001104659-25-123264 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-22-019036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-020000 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-016491 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001104659-25-123264 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001558370-22-019036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-020000 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-016491 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001104659-25-123264 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)