MeritValue

OSI SYSTEMS INC

OSISdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

OSI SYSTEMS INC earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.01 and $69.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.15B1$1.18B2$1.28B3$1.54B3$1.71B3
Net income$74M4$115.3M5$91.8M6$128.2M6$149.6M6
Operating cash flow$139.1M7$63.8M8$94.8M9−$87.5M9$97.6M9
Capital expenditure$16.9M10$14.9M11$15.8M12$22.1M12$23.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$122.2M7$48.9M8$79M9−$109.6M9$73.8M9
Total debt$554.5M13$586.7M14$289.1M15$275.1M16$943.3M16
Cash & equivalents$80.6M17$64.2M18$76.8M19$95.4M20$106.4M20
Diluted shares18.4M17.9M17.2M17.4M17.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$553.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$87.11
Free cash flow it threw off
$42.94
Debt you’d be carrying
$549.11

10 shares is a claim on $553.66 of net worth that earned you $87.11 and generated $42.94 of cash last year, against $549.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 10%FY23 10%FY24 12%FY25 8%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 70% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.01 and $69.58 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$73.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$73.8M
Earnings Power Value
$69.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$115.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$104.17
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.63
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.63
Base0.0%$12.63
Bull5.0%$27.48

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001104659-23-096477 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001410578-24-001571 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001410578-25-001887 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001104659-23-096477 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001410578-24-001571 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001410578-25-001887 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001104659-23-096477 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001410578-24-001571 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001410578-25-001887 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001104659-23-096477 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001410578-24-001571 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001410578-25-001887 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001104659-22-092999 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001104659-23-096477 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001410578-24-001571 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001410578-25-001887 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001104659-22-092999 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001104659-23-096477 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001410578-24-001571 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001410578-25-001887 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)