MeritValue

Oscar Health, Inc.

OSCRdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Oscar Health, Inc. earns about -37% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 47% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $127.01 and $224.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.39M1$64.9M2$21.4M3$20.6M3$28.6M3
Net income−$572.6M4−$606.3M5−$270.7M6$25.4M6−$443.2M6
Operating cash flow−$181.7M7$380.3M8−$272.2M9$978.2M9$1.09B9
Capital expenditure$25.9M10$29M11$25.6M12$27.9M12$36.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$207.6M7$351.3M8−$297.7M9$950.3M9$1.06B9
Total debt$013$298M14$298.8M15$299.6M16$430.1M16
Cash & equivalents$1.1B17$1.56B18$1.87B19$1.53B19$2.77B19
Diluted shares179.0M212.5M221.7M265.9M262.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$37.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$16.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$40.34
Debt you’d be carrying
$16.39

10 shares is a claim on $37.26 of net worth that earned you −$16.89 and generated $40.34 of cash last year, against $16.39 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-37% avg · 5y
FY21 -41%FY22 -68%FY23 -34%FY24 3%FY25 -45%

It earned about -37% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+47% shares · 5y

Share count is up 47% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $127.01 and $224.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$224.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$950.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$127.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$950.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $127.01
The three cases
Bear0.0%$60.68
Base20.0%$127.01
Bull20.0%$127.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001568651-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001568651-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001568651-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001568651-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001568651-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001568651-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001568651-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001568651-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001568651-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001568651-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001568651-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001568651-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001568651-23-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001568651-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001568651-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001568651-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001568651-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001568651-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001568651-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)