Opera Ltd

OPRAdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Opera Ltd earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 61% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.34 and $39.52 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$251M1$331M2$396.8M3$480.6M3$614.8M3
Net income−$44M4$15M4$153.3M4$80.8M5$108.3M5
Operating cash flow$26.6M6$56.7M7$82.8M8$105M8$117.7M8
Capital expenditure$1.06M9$3.19M10$1.87M11$23.3M11$5.55M11
Free cash flow (derived)$25.5M6$53.5M7$80.9M8$81.6M8$112.2M8
Total debt$13.5M12$7.84M13$10.5M13
Cash & equivalents$102.9M14$52.4M15$93.9M15$126.8M15$155.5M15
Diluted shares230.3M178.4M175.0M88.5M89.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$112.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.51
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $112.74 of net worth that earned you $12.08 and generated $12.51 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 2%FY23 18%FY24 10%FY25 13%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−61% shares · 5y

Share count is down 61% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 22% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.34 and $39.52 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$39.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.1%
  • fcfBase$81.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$26.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.1%
  • fcfBase$81.6M
Earnings Power Value
$9.34
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$80.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.37
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $26.28
The three cases
Bear0.0%$14.74
Base15.1%$26.28
Bull20.0%$31.42

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-013974 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-052668 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001737450-26-000005 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-013974 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001737450-26-000005 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-013974 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-052668 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001737450-26-000005 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-013974 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-052668 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001737450-26-000005 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-010743 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-013974 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-052668 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001737450-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalents)