MeritValue

Ondas Inc.

ONDSdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ondas Inc. earns about -130% on invested capital, and has bought back 99% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.91M1$2.13M2$15.7M3$7.19M4$50.7M4
Net income−$15M5−$73.2M6−$44.8M7−$38M8−$132.2M8
Operating cash flow−$16.9M9−$38M10−$34M11−$33.5M12−$38.7M12
Capital expenditure$923,71813$2.88M14$211,03515$1.64M16$2.03M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$17.8M9−$40.8M10−$34.2M11−$35.1M12−$40.8M12
Total debt$300,00017——$300,00018—
Cash & equivalents$40.8M19$29.8M19$15M20$30M21$550.7M21
Diluted shares34.2M42.2M52.7M69,917221,769

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$19,741.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5,962.74
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1,838.85
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $19,741.62 of net worth that earned you −$5,962.74 and generated −$1,838.85 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-130% avg · 5y
FY21 -19%FY22 -193%FY23 -177%FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -130% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−99% shares · 5y

Share count is down 99% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019939 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028244 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-022968 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035981 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019939 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028244 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-022968 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035981 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019939 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028244 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-022968 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035981 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019939 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028244 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-022968 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035981 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-013991 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-022968 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-019939 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035981 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035981 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)