MeritValue

Outset Medical, Inc.

OMdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Outset Medical, Inc. earns about -32% on invested capital, and has bought back 67% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$102.6M1$115.4M2$130.4M3$113.7M3$119.5M3
Net income−$131.9M4−$163M5−$172.8M6−$128M6−$81.7M6
Operating cash flow−$130.3M7−$145.7M8−$131.4M9−$116.3M9−$46.3M9
Capital expenditure$3.11M10$8.33M11$3.44M12$912,00012$798,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$133.4M7−$154.1M8−$134.8M9−$117.2M9−$47.1M9
Total debt$61.5M13$197.4M14$260.2M15$394.8M16$192.5M16
Cash & equivalents$182.3M17$73.2M17$68.5M18$124M19$35M19
Diluted shares45,58948,1613,3053,46315,211

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$83,460.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$53,680.23
Free cash flow it threw off
−$30,980.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$126,536.06

10 shares is a claim on $83,460.65 of net worth that earned you −$53,680.23 and generated −$30,980.87 of cash last year, against $126,536.06 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-32% avg · 5y
FY21 -41%FY22 -34%FY23 -40%FY24 -28%FY25 -19%

It earned an average -32% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−67% shares · 5y

Share count is down 67% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 213% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018093 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030045 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051278 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018093 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030045 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051278 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018093 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051278 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018093 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030045 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051278 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002648 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018093 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030045 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051278 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018093 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051278 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)