MeritValue

Oklo Inc.

OKLOdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Oklo Inc. earns about -18% on equity, but has diluted owners by 112% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$1.06M1$3.93M2−$32.2M3−$73.6M4−$105.7M4
Operating cash flow−$1.88M5−$954,6916−$16M7−$38.4M8−$82.2M8
Capital expenditure——$83,0009$352,00010$33.2M10
Free cash flow (derived)——−$16.1M7−$38.7M8−$115.4M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$3.34M11$3.58M12$9.87M13$97.1M14$788.4M14
Diluted shares——68.9M98.9M146.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$100.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.22
Free cash flow it threw off
−$7.88
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $100.87 of net worth that earned you −$7.22 and generated −$7.88 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-18% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 —FY24 -29%FY25 -7%

It earned an average -18% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+112% shares · 5y

Share count is up 112% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000545 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000365 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014490 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018698 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000545 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000365 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014490 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018698 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014490 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018698 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000545 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000365 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014490 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018698 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)