MeritValue

Nomad Foods Ltd

NOMDdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

Nomad Foods Ltd earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between €14.02 and €86.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€2.61B1€2.94B2€3.04B3€3.1B3€3.03B3
Net income€181M4€249.8M5€192.7M6€227.1M6€136.7M6
Operating cash flow€306.3M7€303.8M8€430.8M9€435.4M9€330.7M9
Capital expenditure€79.2M10€79.1M11€82.4M12€80.3M12€78.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)€227.1M7€224.7M8€348.4M9€355.1M9€252.2M9
Total debt€2.23B13€2.16B14€2.14B15€2.18B16€2.29B16
Cash & equivalents€254M17€369.4M17———
Diluted shares173.6M172.6M163.2M156.1M142.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€175.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€9.6
Free cash flow it threw off
€17.71
Debt you’d be carrying
€160.87

10 shares is a claim on €175.3 of net worth that earned you €9.6 and generated €17.71 of cash last year, against €160.87 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 7%FY23 6%FY24 7%FY25 5%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between €14.02 and €86.87 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
€86.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.3%
  • fcfBase€348.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
€50.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.3%
  • fcfBase€348.4M
Earnings Power Value
€14.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€192.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth €50.35
The three cases
Bear0.0%€18.86
Base15.3%€50.35
Bull20.0%€63.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001651717-24-000019 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001651717-25-000011 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001651717-26-000006 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001651717-24-000019 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001651717-25-000011 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001651717-26-000006 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001651717-24-000019 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001651717-25-000011 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001651717-26-000006 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001651717-24-000019 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001651717-25-000011 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001651717-26-000006 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001651717-23-000013 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001651717-24-000019 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001651717-25-000011 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001651717-26-000006 (Borrowings)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001651717-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalents)