MeritValue

NEXTNAV INC.

NNdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NEXTNAV INC. earns about -109% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 464% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$763,0001$3.93M2$3.86M3$5.67M4$4.57M4
Net income−$144.7M5−$40.1M6−$71.7M7−$101.9M8−$189.3M8
Operating cash flow−$47.9M9−$37.1M10−$35.4M11−$38M12−$50.7M12
Capital expenditure$1.02M13$2.96M14$2.75M15$350,00016$50,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$49M9−$40.1M10−$38.2M11−$38.4M12−$50.8M12
Total debt——$48.4M17$54.6M18$273.6M18
Cash & equivalents$100.1M19$47.2M20$81.9M21$39.3M21$44.8M21
Diluted shares23,561101.0M108.0M121,500132,866

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$6,490.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$14,243.9
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3,823.02
Debt you’d be carrying
$20,591.35

10 shares is a claim on −$6,490.37 of net worth that earned you −$14,243.9 and generated −$3,823.02 of cash last year, against $20,591.35 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-109% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -59%FY23 -131%FY24 -134%FY25 -112%

It earned an average -109% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+464% shares · 5y

Share count is up 464% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 465% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024631 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022183 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-023287 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000328 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024631 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022183 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-023287 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000328 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024631 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022183 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-023287 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000328 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024631 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022183 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-023287 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000328 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-023287 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000328 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022183 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-023287 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001554855-26-000328 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)