MeritValue

NOMURA HOLDINGS INC

NMRdata completeness 100%2 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

NOMURA HOLDINGS INC earns about 2% on equity, but has diluted owners by 16% over 2 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2010FY 2011
Revenue$14.5B1$16.7B2
Net income$726M3$346M4
Operating cash flow−$16.1B5−$2.84B6
Capital expenditure$889M7$2.25B8
Free cash flow (derived)−$17B5−$5.09B6
Total debt$91B9$115.6B10
Cash & equivalents$12.3B11$19.6B11
Diluted shares3.14B3.64B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$69.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.95
Free cash flow it threw off
−$13.98
Debt you’d be carrying
$317.45

10 shares is a claim on $69.09 of net worth that earned you $0.95 and generated −$13.98 of cash last year, against $317.45 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
2% avg · 2y
FY10 3%FY11 1%

It earned an average 2% on equity over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+16% shares · 2y

Share count is up 16% over 2 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 27% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
$3.74
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F/A · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-10-168133 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F/A · period ending 2011-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-201639 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F/A · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-10-168133 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F/A · period ending 2011-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-201639 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F/A · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-10-168133 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F/A · period ending 2011-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-201639 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F/A · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-10-168133 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F/A · period ending 2011-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-201639 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 20-F/A · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-10-168133 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 20-F/A · period ending 2011-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-201639 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 20-F/A · period ending 2010-03-31 · accession 0001193125-11-201639 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)