Intercont (Cayman) Ltd

NCTdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Intercont (Cayman) Ltd earns about 28% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 3 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.28 and $4.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$32.4M1$25.5M1$25.1M1
Net income$10.9M2$3.14M2$3.1M2
Operating cash flow$13.6M3$6.48M3$7.4M3
Capital expenditure$12M4$656,9624$1.05M4
Free cash flow (derived)$1.57M3$5.82M3$6.35M3
Total debt$9.01M5$5.82M5
Cash & equivalents$3.42M6$3.75M6$5.65M6
Diluted shares24.5M24.6M25.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.22
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.5
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.29

10 shares is a claim on $9.77 of net worth that earned you $1.22 and generated $2.5 of cash last year, against $2.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
28% avg · 3y
FY23 59%FY24 15%FY25 10%

It earned about 28% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 3y

Share count is up 4% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 35% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.28 and $4.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$5.82M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$5.82M
Earnings Power Value
$1.28
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.14M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.48
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.06
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.27
Base5.0%$4.06
Bull10.0%$5.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-104020 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-104020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-104020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-104020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-104020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001213900-25-104020 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)