MeritValue

MATERIALISE NV

MTLSdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

MATERIALISE NV earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between €1.18 and €2.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue€170.4M1€205.5M2€232M3€256.1M3€266.8M3
Net income−€7.04M4€13.2M5−€2.12M6€6.72M6€13.4M6
Operating cash flow€30M7€25.8M8€22.3M9€20.2M9€31.5M9
Capital expenditure€11M10€7.93M11€21.6M12€9.24M12€24.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)€18.9M7€17.9M8€680,0009€10.9M9€6.81M9
Total debt€115.1M13€99.1M14€81M15€64.4M15€41.3M15
Cash & equivalents€111.5M16€196M17€140.9M17€127.6M17€102.3M17
Diluted shares54.2M59.1M59.1M59.1M59.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€42.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€2.27
Free cash flow it threw off
€1.15
Debt you’d be carrying
€6.99

10 shares is a claim on €42.08 of net worth that earned you €2.27 and generated €1.15 of cash last year, against €6.99 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY20 -5%FY21 10%FY22 -1%FY23 4%FY24 7%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 64% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between €1.18 and €2.68 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
€2.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase€6.81M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
€2.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase€6.81M
Earnings Power Value
€1.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€6.72M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth €2.68
The three cases
Bear0.0%€2.68
Base0.0%€2.68
Bull5.0%€3.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-046316 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-046531 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-037207 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-046316 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-046531 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-037207 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-046316 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-046531 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-037207 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-046316 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-046531 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-037207 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-046316 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-046531 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-037207 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-046531 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-037207 (CashAndCashEquivalents)