MeritValue

Strategy Inc

MSTRdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Strategy Inc earns about -10% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2671% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$510.8M1$499.3M2$496.3M3$463.5M3$477.2M3
Net income−$535.5M4−$1.47B5$429.1M6−$1.17B6−$3.85B6
Operating cash flow$93.8M7$3.21M8$12.7M9−$53M9−$67.2M9
Capital expenditure$2.71M10$2.49M11$2.94M12$2.98M12$8.21M12
Free cash flow (derived)$91.1M7$725,0008$9.77M9−$56M9−$75.5M9
Total debt$4.31B13$4.76B14$4.37B15$14.4B16$16.4B16
Cash & equivalents$63.4M17$43.8M18$46.8M19$38.1M20$2.3B20
Diluted shares10.0M113.2M165.7M192.5M277.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,589.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$138.59
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.72
Debt you’d be carrying
$589.94

10 shares is a claim on $1,589.12 of net worth that earned you −$138.59 and generated −$2.72 of cash last year, against $589.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-10% avg · 5y
FY21 -12%FY22 -24%FY23 -2%FY24 -5%FY25 -8%

It earned an average -10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2671% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2671% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 280% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015847 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021814 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001050446-26-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015847 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021814 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001050446-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015847 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021814 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001050446-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015847 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021814 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001050446-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015847 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021814 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001050446-26-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015847 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021814 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001050446-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)