MeritValue

MDU RESOURCES GROUP INC

MDUdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MDU RESOURCES GROUP INC earns about 3% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $18.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.4B1$1.75B2$1.81B3$1.75B3$1.86B3
Net income$378.1M4$367.5M5$414.7M6$281.1M6$190.4M6
Operating cash flow$495.8M7$510.1M8$332.6M9$502.3M9$473.4M9
Capital expenditure$485.2M10$442.6M11$484.1M12$522.8M12$770.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$10.6M7$67.5M8−$151.5M9−$20.5M9−$297M9
Total debt$5.48B13$4.77B14$4.43B15$4.59B16$5.35B16
Cash & equivalents$54.2M17$70.4M18$60.5M19$66.9M20$28.2M20
Diluted shares202.4M203.5M203.9M204.7M205.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$135.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.27
Free cash flow it threw off
−$14.47
Debt you’d be carrying
$260.77

10 shares is a claim on $135.07 of net worth that earned you $9.27 and generated −$14.47 of cash last year, against $260.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 2%FY23 6%FY24 3%FY25 2%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$18.55
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$367.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000067716-24-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000067716-25-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000067716-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000067716-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000067716-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000067716-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000067716-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000067716-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000067716-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000067716-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000067716-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000067716-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000067716-23-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000067716-24-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000067716-25-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000067716-26-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000067716-23-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000067716-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000067716-25-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000067716-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)