MeritValue

Magnera Corp

MAGNdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Magnera Corp earns about -3% on invested capital, and has bought back 21% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.49B1$2.28B2$1.39B1$2.19B2$3.2B2
Net income−$194.2M3$38M4−$79.1M3−$154M4−$159M4
Operating cash flow−$40.8M5$257M6−$25.6M7$192M6$103M6
Capital expenditure$37.7M8$88M9$33.8M8$72M9$67M9
Free cash flow (derived)−$78.6M5$169M6−$59.4M7$120M6$36M6
Total debt$1.69B10—$1.73B10$1.95B11$1.95B11
Cash & equivalents$110.7M12$185M13$50.3M12$230M14$305M14
Diluted shares44.8M31.8M45.1M31.8M35.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$299.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$44.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$549.86

10 shares is a claim on $299.72 of net worth that earned you −$44.79 and generated $10.14 of cash last year, against $549.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3% avg · 5y
FY22 -7%FY23 2%FY23 -0%FY24 -3%FY25 -5%

It earned an average -3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−21% shares · 5y

Share count is down 21% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 16% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$36M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$36M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000041719-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000041719-25-000110 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000041719-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000041719-25-000110 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000041719-23-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000041719-25-000110 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000041719-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000041719-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000041719-25-000110 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000041719-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0000041719-25-000110 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000041719-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000041719-25-000110 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0000041719-25-000110 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)