MID AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES INC.

MAAIdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

MID AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES INC. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $47.22 and $161.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.78B1$2.02B2$2.15B3$2.19B3$2.21B3
Net income$533.8M4$637.4M5$552.8M6$527.5M6$446.9M6
Operating cash flow$895M7$1.06B8$1.14B9$1.1B9$1.08B9
Capital expenditure$279.6M10$296.2M11$341.2M12$322.4M12$360.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$615.3M7$762.3M8$796M9$775.9M9$717.9M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$54.3M13$38.7M14$41.3M15$43M15$60.3M15
Diluted shares115.0M115.6M116.6M116.8M117.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$483.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$38.15
Free cash flow it threw off
$61.28
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $483.39 of net worth that earned you $38.15 and generated $61.28 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 13%FY23 12%FY24 12%FY25 11%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $47.22 and $161.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$161.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.0%
  • fcfBase$775.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$134.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.0%
  • fcfBase$775.9M
Earnings Power Value
$47.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$533.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$64.12
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $134.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$95.15
Base8.0%$134.12
Bull13.0%$164.58

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013275 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-016287 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-041208 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013275 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-016287 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-041208 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013275 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-016287 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-041208 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013275 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-016287 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-041208 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-013275 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-016287 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-041208 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)