MeritValue

Lifezone Metals Ltd

LZMdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Lifezone Metals Ltd earns about -145% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 50% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.09M1$2.93M2$1.48M3$140,5223$1.06M3
Net income−$18M4−$23.6M5−$363.9M6−$46.3M6−$13.6M6
Operating cash flow−$7.09M7−$17M8−$27M9−$15.9M9−$15.6M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$45.6M10$20.5M11$49.4M11$29.3M11$20.1M11
Diluted shares57.1M58.3M78.3M78.7M85.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.59
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $8.63 of net worth that earned you −$1.59 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-145% avg · 5y
FY21 -174%FY22 -46%FY23 -421%FY24 -61%FY25 -21%

It earned an average -145% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+50% shares · 5y

Share count is up 50% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028129 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017198 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001958217-26-000009 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028129 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017198 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001958217-26-000009 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028129 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017198 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001958217-26-000009 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-017198 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001958217-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalents)