MeritValue

Lantern Pharma Inc.

LTRNdata completeness 75%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Lantern Pharma Inc. earns about -88% on equity, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$12.4M1−$14.3M2−$16M3−$20.8M4−$17.1M4
Operating cash flow−$10.6M5−$12.8M6−$14.3M7−$17.8M8−$15.7M8
Capital expenditure$15,4999$27,84410$18,73411$12,59512$1,71512
Free cash flow (derived)−$10.6M5−$12.8M6−$14.4M7−$17.8M8−$15.7M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$51.5M13$37.2M14$21.9M15$7.51M16$4.42M16
Diluted shares10.9M10.9M10.8M10.8M10.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$15.71
Free cash flow it threw off
−$14.39
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $6 of net worth that earned you −$15.71 and generated −$14.39 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-88% avg · 5y
FY21 -17%FY22 -25%FY23 -39%FY24 -98%FY25 -262%

It earned an average -88% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-008241 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-010302 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000926 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-013612 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-008241 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-010302 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000926 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-013612 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-008241 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-010302 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000926 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-013612 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-008241 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-010302 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000926 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-013612 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)