MeritValue

Lumentum Holdings Inc.

LITEdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Lumentum Holdings Inc. earns about -41% on equity, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.71B1$1.77B2$1.36B3$1.65B3$3.01B3
Net income$198.9M4−$131.6M5−$546.5M6$25.9M6−$6.94B6
Operating cash flow$459.3M7$179.8M8$24.7M9$126.3M9$751.4M9
Capital expenditure$91.2M10$128.5M11$133M12$231M12$451.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$368.1M7$51.3M8−$108.3M9−$104.7M9$300.1M9
Total debt$2.41B13—$2.5B14$2.58B15$3.23B15
Cash & equivalents$1.29B16$859M17$436.7M18$520.7M19$2.04B19
Diluted shares74.2M68.3M67.3M69.6M74.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$622.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$929.64
Free cash flow it threw off
$40.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$433.55

10 shares is a claim on $622.51 of net worth that earned you −$929.64 and generated $40.23 of cash last year, against $433.55 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-41% avg · 5y
FY22 11%FY23 -10%FY24 -57%FY25 2%FY26 -149%

It earned an average -41% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 34% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001628280-24-038024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001628280-25-040830 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001628280-26-057358 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001628280-24-038024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001628280-25-040830 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001628280-26-057358 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001628280-24-038024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001628280-25-040830 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001628280-26-057358 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001628280-24-038024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001628280-25-040830 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001628280-26-057358 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001628280-22-023617 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001628280-25-040830 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-28 · accession 0001628280-26-057358 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001628280-23-030374 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001628280-24-038024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001628280-25-040830 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-28 · accession 0001628280-26-057358 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)