MeritValue

Lumentum Holdings Inc.

LITEdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Lumentum Holdings Inc. earns about -7% on equity, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.74B1$1.71B2$1.77B3$1.36B3$1.65B3
Net income$397.3M4$198.9M5−$131.6M6−$546.5M6$25.9M6
Operating cash flow$738.7M7$459.3M8$179.8M9$24.7M9$126.3M9
Capital expenditure$84.8M10$91.2M11$128.5M12$133M12$231M12
Free cash flow (derived)$653.9M7$368.1M8$51.3M9−$108.3M9−$104.7M9
Total debt$1.53B13$2.41B14—$2.5B15$2.58B15
Cash & equivalents$774.3M16$1.29B17$859M18$436.7M19$520.7M19
Diluted shares78.4M74.2M68.3M67.3M69.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$163.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.72
Free cash flow it threw off
−$15.04
Debt you’d be carrying
$371.24

10 shares is a claim on $163.03 of net worth that earned you $3.72 and generated −$15.04 of cash last year, against $371.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-7% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 11%FY23 -10%FY24 -57%FY25 2%

It earned an average -7% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 69% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$3.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$25.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$11.65
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0001628280-23-030374 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001628280-24-038024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001628280-25-040830 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0001628280-23-030374 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001628280-24-038024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001628280-25-040830 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0001628280-23-030374 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001628280-24-038024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001628280-25-040830 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0001628280-23-030374 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001628280-24-038024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001628280-25-040830 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0001628280-21-017799 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001628280-22-023617 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001628280-25-040830 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0001628280-22-023617 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0001628280-23-030374 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0001628280-24-038024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0001628280-25-040830 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)