MeritValue

Lion Group Holding Ltd

LGHLdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Lion Group Holding Ltd earns about -76% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 37% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.78M1$5.09M2$7.02M3$1.24M3$2,5833
Net income$22,7824−$31.6M5−$5.26M6−$27.4M6−$4.96M6
Operating cash flow−$20.5M7−$3.94M8$13.4M9−$19.1M9−$3.52M9
Capital expenditure——$7.85M10—$11,48010
Free cash flow (derived)——$5.56M9—−$3.54M9
Total debt$110,00011$110,00012$110,00013$3.26M14$109,98214
Cash & equivalents$15.1M15$11.2M16$29M16$16.9M17$20.1M17
Diluted shares4.0M5.5M———

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-76% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 -140%FY23 -100%FY24 —FY25 -63%

It earned an average -76% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+37% shares · 5y

Share count is up 37% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037823 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037603 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050410 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037823 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037603 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050410 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037823 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037603 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050410 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050410 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-021145 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037823 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037603 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050410 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037823 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-037603 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050410 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)