MeritValue

Leslie's, Inc.

LESLdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Leslie's, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, and has bought back 95% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $30.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.34B1$1.56B2$1.45B3$1.33B3$1.24B3
Net income$126.6M4$159M5$27.2M6−$23.4M6−$237M6
Operating cash flow$169.3M7$66.6M8$6.47M9$107.5M9$8.82M9
Capital expenditure$28.9M10$31.7M11$38.6M12$47.2M12$25.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$140.3M7$34.9M8−$32.1M9$60.2M9−$16.7M9
Total debt$1.6B13$1.59B14$1.57B15$1.56B16$1.51B16
Cash & equivalents$343.5M17$112.3M18$55.4M19$108.5M20$64.3M20
Diluted shares190.0M186.1M9.2M9.2M9.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$440.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$255.69
Free cash flow it threw off
−$17.99
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,627.86

10 shares is a claim on −$440.22 of net worth that earned you −$255.69 and generated −$17.99 of cash last year, against $1,627.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 14%FY23 6%FY24 4%FY25 -13%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−95% shares · 5y

Share count is down 95% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$30.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$27.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000950170-23-066773 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000950170-24-131476 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-323811 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000950170-23-066773 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000950170-24-131476 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-323811 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000950170-23-066773 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000950170-24-131476 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-323811 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000950170-23-066773 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000950170-24-131476 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-323811 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000950170-22-025883 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000950170-23-066773 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-131476 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0001193125-25-323811 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000950170-22-025883 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000950170-23-066773 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-131476 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0001193125-25-323811 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)