MeritValue

Lithium Argentina AG

LARdata completeness 75%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Lithium Argentina AG earns about -26% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 34% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$38.5M1−$93.6M2$1.29B3−$15.2M3−$75.4M3
Operating cash flow−$53.2M4−$65.2M5−$59M6−$21.8M6−$30M6
Capital expenditure$579,0007$169,0008$5.29M9$971,0009$09
Free cash flow (derived)−$53.8M4−$65.4M5−$64.3M6−$22.8M6−$30M6
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$510.6M10$194.5M11$122.3M11$85.5M11$61.1M11
Diluted shares120.8M135.0M160.7M161.9M162.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$47.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.65
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.84
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $47.28 of net worth that earned you −$4.65 and generated −$1.84 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-26% avg · 5y
FY21 -119%FY22 -4%FY23 2%FY24 -3%FY25 -9%

It earned an average -26% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+34% shares · 5y

Share count is up 34% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-088471 (ProfitLoss)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046966 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-118478 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-088471 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046966 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-118478 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-088471 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046966 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-118478 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-046966 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-118478 (CashAndCashEquivalents)