MeritValue

COCA COLA CO

KOdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

COCA COLA CO earns about 35% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $18.05 and $25.31 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$38.7B1$43B2$45.8B3$47.1B3$47.9B3
Net income$9.77B4$9.54B5$10.7B6$10.6B6$13.1B6
Operating cash flow$12.6B7$11B8$11.6B9$6.81B9$7.41B9
Capital expenditure$1.37B10$1.48B11$1.85B12$2.06B12$2.11B12
Free cash flow (derived)$11.3B7$9.53B8$9.75B9$4.74B9$5.3B9
Total debt$84.7B13$78.1B14$79.2B14$1.14B15$1.5B15
Cash & equivalents$9.68B16$9.52B17$9.37B18$10.8B18$10.3B18
Diluted shares4.34B4.35B4.34B4.32B4.31B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$74.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.39
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.28
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.47

10 shares is a claim on $74.59 of net worth that earned you $30.39 and generated $12.28 of cash last year, against $3.47 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
35% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 11%FY23 12%FY24 79%FY25 62%

It earned about 35% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 98% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18.05 and $25.31 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$18.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.3B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$19.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.3B
Earnings Power Value
$25.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$10.6B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$22.59
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $19.35
The three cases
Bear0.0%$19.35
Base0.0%$19.35
Bull5.0%$23.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021344-24-000009 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021344-25-000011 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010047 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021344-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021344-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021344-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021344-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021344-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021344-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010047 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021344-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021344-24-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010047 (CommercialPaper)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021344-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021344-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)