MeritValue

Kenon Holdings Ltd.

KENdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Kenon Holdings Ltd. earns about 10% on invested capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $62.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$487.8M1$574M2$691.8M3$751.3M3$871.9M3
Net income$930.3M4$312.7M5−$236M6$597.7M6$66.3M6
Operating cash flow$240.5M7$771.4M8$276.8M9$265.1M9$283.8M9
Capital expenditure$239.7M10$281.3M11$332.1M12$340.7M12$116.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$866,0007$490.1M8−$55.3M9−$75.6M9$167.4M9
Total debt$1.21B13$1.16B14$1.53B15$1.27B16$1.77B16
Cash & equivalents$474.5M17$535.2M18$696.8M18$1.02B18$1.48B18
Diluted shares53.9M53.9M52.8M52.2M52.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$304.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.72
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.12
Debt you’d be carrying
$339.51

10 shares is a claim on $304.85 of net worth that earned you $12.72 and generated $32.12 of cash last year, against $339.51 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 35%FY22 2%FY23 3%FY24 3%FY25 8%

It earned an average 10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 46% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$62.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$312.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$29.51
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001078 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001173 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001842 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001078 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001173 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001842 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001078 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001173 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001842 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001078 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001173 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001842 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-23-001203 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001078 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001173 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001842 (Borrowings)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001173 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001842 (CashAndCashEquivalents)