MeritValue

IREN Ltd

IRENdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

IREN Ltd earns about -32% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 982% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.9M1$59M1$75.5M2$187.2M2$501M2
Net income−$60.4M3−$419.8M4−$171.8M5−$28.9M5$86.9M5
Operating cash flow$1.76M6−$37.5M7$5.73M8$52.2M8$245.9M8
Capital expenditure$7.3M9$83.7M10$116.1M11$141.9M11$573.5M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$5.54M6−$121.1M7−$110.3M8−$89.6M8−$327.6M8
Total debt$83.8M12$108.3M13$1.45M13——
Cash & equivalents$39M14$110M15$68.9M15$404.6M16$564.5M16
Diluted shares20.6M40.9M54.8M99.6M223.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$81.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.89
Free cash flow it threw off
−$14.67
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $81.41 of net worth that earned you $3.89 and generated −$14.67 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-32% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -76%FY23 -56%FY24 -3%FY25 7%

It earned an average -32% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+982% shares · 5y

Share count is up 982% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 98% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$8.45
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001140361-23-043816 (Revenue)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001878848-25-000063 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001140361-23-043816 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001878848-25-000020 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001878848-25-000063 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001140361-23-043816 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001878848-25-000020 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001878848-25-000063 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001140361-23-043816 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  10. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001878848-25-000020 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001878848-25-000063 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001140361-22-033208 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001140361-23-043816 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001878848-25-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001878848-25-000063 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001878848-25-000063 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)