MeritValue

IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS INC

IONSdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS INC earns about -9% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$810.5M1$587.4M2$787.6M3$705.1M3$943.7M3
Net income−$28.6M4−$269.7M5−$366.3M6−$453.9M6−$381.4M6
Operating cash flow$30.8M7−$274.4M8−$307.5M9−$500.9M9−$268.6M9
Capital expenditure$12M10$15.7M11$23.8M12$45.3M12$51.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$18.8M7−$290.1M8−$331.3M9−$546.2M9−$320M9
Total debt—$2.37B13$2.55B14$2.46B15$3.57B16
Cash & equivalents$869.2M17$276.5M18$399.3M19$242.1M20$372.3M20
Diluted shares141.0M141.8M143.2M149.5M160.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$30.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$23.84
Free cash flow it threw off
−$20
Debt you’d be carrying
$223.27

10 shares is a claim on $30.57 of net worth that earned you −$23.84 and generated −$20 of cash last year, against $223.27 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-9% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -7%FY23 -10%FY24 -12%FY25 -8%

It earned an average -9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 51% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874015-24-000116 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874015-25-000089 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874015-26-000115 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874015-24-000116 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874015-25-000089 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874015-26-000115 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874015-24-000116 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874015-25-000089 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874015-26-000115 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874015-24-000116 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874015-25-000089 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874015-26-000115 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874015-23-000105 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874015-24-000116 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000874015-25-000089 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000874015-26-000115 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000874015-23-000105 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000874015-24-000116 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000874015-25-000089 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000874015-26-000115 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)