MeritValue

ioneer Ltd

IONRdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

ioneer Ltd earns about -5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 55% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$02$03$03$03
Net income−$14M4−$8.5M5−$6.39M6−$7.83M6−$9.55M6
Operating cash flow−$4.85M7−$9.35M8−$8.07M9−$7.2M9−$6.81M9
Capital expenditure$5,00010$011$601,00012$2,00012$012
Free cash flow (derived)−$4.85M7−$9.35M8−$8.67M9−$7.2M9−$6.81M9
Total debt————$996M13
Cash & equivalents$62.5M14$94.2M15$52.7M15$35.7M15$25.1M15
Diluted shares1.68B2.09B2.10B2.33B2.61B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.04
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.03
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.82

10 shares is a claim on $0.88 of net worth that earned you −$0.04 and generated −$0.03 of cash last year, against $3.82 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-5% avg · 5y
FY21 -14%FY22 -6%FY23 -3%FY24 -3%FY25 -1%

It earned an average -5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+55% shares · 5y

Share count is up 55% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001140361-23-049907 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001140361-24-043965 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001140361-25-038934 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001140361-23-049907 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001140361-24-043965 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001140361-25-038934 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001140361-23-049907 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001140361-24-043965 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001140361-25-038934 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001140361-23-049907 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001140361-24-043965 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001140361-25-038934 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001140361-25-038934 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001140361-24-043965 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001140361-25-038934 (CashAndCashEquivalents)