MeritValue

INTEL CORP

INTCdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

INTEL CORP earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$79B1$63.1B2$54.2B3$53.1B3$52.9B3
Net income$19.9B4$8.01B5$1.69B6−$18.8B6−$267M6
Operating cash flow$29.5B7$15.4B8$11.5B9$8.29B9$9.7B9
Capital expenditure$18.7B10$24.8B11$25.8B12$23.9B12$14.6B12
Free cash flow (derived)$10.7B7−$9.41B8−$14.3B9−$15.7B9−$4.95B9
Total debt$80.8B13$84.5B14$100.8B15$103.8B16$95.7B16
Cash & equivalents$4.83B17$11.1B18$7.08B18$8.25B19$14.3B19
Diluted shares4.09B4.12B4.21B4.28B4.53B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$252.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.59
Free cash flow it threw off
−$10.92
Debt you’d be carrying
$211.19

10 shares is a claim on $252.28 of net worth that earned you −$0.59 and generated −$10.92 of cash last year, against $211.19 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 5%FY23 1%FY24 -5%FY25 0%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 18% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$3.85
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.69B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000050863-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000050863-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000050863-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000050863-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000050863-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000050863-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000050863-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000050863-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000050863-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000050863-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000050863-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000050863-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000050863-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000050863-24-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000050863-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000050863-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000050863-25-000009 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000050863-26-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000050863-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)